Tropical Storm Gabrielle and More

 

As predicted, the newly formed Tropical Storm "GABRIELLE" has turned north/northwest, and looks like our country is free from harm. Let me explain the image above...  The "Green Circles" are the past path of what is now Gabrielle, formerly known at AL92 (explained in previous blog).  So, we dodged THAT bullet...

But...and with Hurricane Season, there is ALWAYS a "but"... There are two more possible disturbances behind Gabrielle.  I have NEVER seen two yellow areas on top of each other.  These are TWO different disturbances.  The one with the Yellow X is off the coast of Africa, and it is too early to know if the conditions are going to allow it to grow.  The second, larger yellow area is still located on Africa, and seems to be a bit larger of a storm, and it might have a larger chance of growing.
 

Above is an image of the computer spaghetti models.  The legend in the above image has all sorts of colors and initials...these are the names of the computer models that developed them.  For instance, "CMC", the light blue line, is the Canadian Meteorological Centre, the Canadian government agency that produces a global weather forecast model. AVNO was an older name for the current American Global Forecast System (GFS), a primary numerical weather prediction model run by the National Weather Service (NWS) and its parent organization, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).  If you are interested more, I will let you do the research on the other model names.  There are over 15 different computer models...the one I choose only has eight models listed.  Below is one that has what seems to be 30+ models...and this was before it was a tropical storm, and they all show a trend northward, away from the USA.

 

Lastly, one needs to have a good local meteorologist they can rely on.  Mine is Paul Dellegatto. Paul Dellegatto is the chief meteorologist for Tampa's FOX 13 (WTVT). He is a highly experienced meteorologist specializing in severe and tropical weather. He has been with WTVT since 1990 and became chief meteorologist in 1997.  He has monitored and reported on numerous storms, Tropical Storms, and Hurricanes.  Below is his latest tweet about Gabrielle from Paul.

So, in short, this is how we get through Hurricane Season.  When it starts looking bad, we will get in the van and leave, driving as far away as needed to get away from danger, and get away from a no electricity scenario.  Will try to keep you all updated on how things are going...
 

 

 

And Then Comes Hurricane Milton . . .

 

If you have not heard, ANOTHER gulf hurricane is headed right for Central Florida.  WHERE it hits land is going to be VERY important.  Hurricanes turn counter clockwise.  When it hits land, the right side of the hurricane (in Central Florida that means the southern side) is going to do the most damage.  Water is being pushed into the land, giving a surge that will be many many feet higher than normal.  On the left side of the hurricane (in Central Florida that means north side) the water is being pushed away from the shore, so there is no water surge.  As far as wind is concerned, when it hits land, the right side (south side) will have all the winds fury coming off the water.  ON the left side (north side) the wind will have been traveling over land, which slows it up, and typically is just not as strong or deadly.

The picture above is from nhc.noaa.gov on Saturday morning shortly after the storm reached the Tropical Depression level...which is when they start predicting its path.  The RED area is the coastline, and it is this area that the following pictures will deal with as I show, close up, the area of potential impact, which changes every 6 hours since landfall is still so far off.

So above is the blow-up of the Saturday, 11 am, prediction...the first prediction.  The RED X is about where we live.  The distance from where they predicted landfall, and where we live, is about 50 miles to our south...so we would be on the left side (north) of where the hurricane would hit.  "IF" this prediction held, we would be fine...

Six hours later, it was now Tropical Storm Milton, and the point of landfall has moved to the north side of Tampa Bay, only 25 miles from us.  THAT is to the point that where I started to feel uncomfortable.  Marcia and I agreed that we might just have to get in the Camper Van and get away from this one.  Impact was predicted for Wednesday.

Six hours later, the point of landfall moved a few miles further north, only 20 miles from where we live.  Ok, I had better make a plan.

Six hours later, it has shifted back to the south, but still on the north side of Tampa Bay.  This is important because "IF" this thing hits slightly north of Tampa Bay, the storm surge into Tampa Bay is going to HUGE...making the flooding along the coast by Helene look like a kid playing in a bathtub.  Tampa would be hit hard...real hard.  When Marcia woke up we talked and decided to leave on Monday.  Told her about a campground up near Tallahassee, and agreed that would be perfect.

Then, six hours later, the track had move south with a hit on Sarasota.  That would be 65 miles south of our home.  I felt much better, however, by 10 am I had reservations at the campground near Tallahassee, and had texted to various family members that we were leaving Monday and heading north.  The great thing about this is that Marcia'a Granddaughter now lives in Tallahassee since she got her new position at Florida State.  So even if the hurricane stays well south of our home, we will be able to enjoy seeing the Great Grandchildren, enjoy camping (hope there are no mosquitos), and not have to worry about the hurricane other than any damage it might do "IF" it hits further north.

Six hours later there was no real shift outside of a mile or two to the predicted landfall spot.  In 90 minutes from now another prediction will come out...don't know if there will be a shift to the north or the south.  These hurricanes tend to shift, but the shift seems to shorten up as it gets closer to the coast.  Anticipating landfall sometime Wednesday morning.  By Wednesday late afternoon it will be out in the Atlantic.  If you look at the very first prediction above, there is a blue area on each side of the black line.  The hurricane will hit somewhere within this blue area.  As we get into late Monday and into Tuesday this blue area will get thinner and thinner.  I expect where we live will be within the blue area until it actually hits land.  If you live within the blue area, you need to be prepared for the Hurricane to impact your area.

So this pattern of watching hurricanes is just life down in Florida.  During hurricane season I watch the National Hurricane Center website a lot, and when there is a potential hurricane that might affect us, I go to it at four times a day, along with other local sites, especially Paul Dellegatto's twitter account where he gives updates frequently.  He is the Chief meteorologist at FOX13 in Tampa. 

As for us...we will be camping until Saturday morning...

 

Predicting Hurricane Paths

 

One thing about Florida is...you have to watch for Hurricanes from June through November.  96 percent of the major hurricane days occur from August to October, (according to NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)  The ONE good thing about hurricanes is that unlike tornadoes, where your provided perhaps a half hour, but sometimes only minutes of a warning, a hurricane gives you days of warning, if you heed the warning.

Paul Dellegatto has been with WTVT, Fox 13, in Tampa for 33 years, and has more experience with Hurricanes for the Tampa area than just about anyone else.  From June through November I monitor his Twitter page consistently.  Above is his first tweet of what is now known as Idalia.   

But the site I follow even more closely is NOAA's National Hurricane Center.  Above is what they posted on Thursday, August 24th, four days ago.  I first saw this, then went to Paul's Twitter page, and then had my first big GULP with a slight lump in the back of my throat.  By the way, I had been following Hurricane Franklin from when it was a Orange X...it is headed north and then north east, away from land.  I first saw Idalia (pronounced  ee-DAHL-yuh) when it was a Yellow X, and then it went from Yellow to Red and really got my attention.

On Saturday it became a Tropical Depression, and then quickly a Tropical Storm by Sunday morning.  Once they are a Depression, you can start to get a path, as shown above. At the tip of the red arrow is where our Condo sits, just over three miles from the Gulf.  Our condo sits at just at 13' in elevation...we are not considered in the flood zone, although a few of the condos closer to the entrance are in the flood zone.

So this is where we are as of 1 pm Pacific Time (our current time zone).  The forecast calls for it to hit land Tuesday night/Wednesday evening. Current impact with land is 100 miles to our northwest, as the crow flies.  

This is a close up view of where it 'might' hit landfall.  I say 'might' because this far out, it is too hard to predict it.  Since it turned into a depression, this 'line' has ranged from being over Perry, which is the top red circle, and as low as Chiefland, which is the bottom red circle.  The distance along the shore is about 33 miles in length.  

So, why did I use the word "MIGHT" in the above paragraph?  This picture above is of Hurricane Ian, last year.  The paths shown were the ones they thought it would follow as of September 25th.  Three days later it slammed into the coast far below each prediction.  So much so that many of the people down south of Punta Gorda where it hit said they were unprepared because 2-3 days earlier it was going to hit well above Tampa.  Then about 24 hours before it hit a forecast had it hitting Tampa...then a few hours later it was moved down closer to where it did hit land.  Those people fell asleep because they were looking at the dark line...ignoring the 'cone' of where it could hit.  

Above you can see the 'cone' in light grey...and it clearly shows that Punta Gorda was in play as where it 'could' hit.  But people saw the 'red line', which is where most models showed where it probably could hit.  

This is the 4 pm release, not much of a change.  Except that the center of the Tropical Storm has not moved very far since it became a Tropical Depression...only about 80 miles.  Monday was suppose to be the day of more rapid movement...it has not happened yet.

So Paul says that this 'could' be good news...perhaps the storm won't be as strong as first predicted.  We can only hope so.  And being on the edge of the cone still leaves that lump in the back of my throat...and since we don't have any cats, and Indy does not shed very much, it surely can't be a furball stuck back there...

NOTE:  We are in California, far away from the danger posed by this up and coming Hurricane