Tropical Storm Gabrielle and More

 

As predicted, the newly formed Tropical Storm "GABRIELLE" has turned north/northwest, and looks like our country is free from harm. Let me explain the image above...  The "Green Circles" are the past path of what is now Gabrielle, formerly known at AL92 (explained in previous blog).  So, we dodged THAT bullet...

But...and with Hurricane Season, there is ALWAYS a "but"... There are two more possible disturbances behind Gabrielle.  I have NEVER seen two yellow areas on top of each other.  These are TWO different disturbances.  The one with the Yellow X is off the coast of Africa, and it is too early to know if the conditions are going to allow it to grow.  The second, larger yellow area is still located on Africa, and seems to be a bit larger of a storm, and it might have a larger chance of growing.
 

Above is an image of the computer spaghetti models.  The legend in the above image has all sorts of colors and initials...these are the names of the computer models that developed them.  For instance, "CMC", the light blue line, is the Canadian Meteorological Centre, the Canadian government agency that produces a global weather forecast model. AVNO was an older name for the current American Global Forecast System (GFS), a primary numerical weather prediction model run by the National Weather Service (NWS) and its parent organization, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).  If you are interested more, I will let you do the research on the other model names.  There are over 15 different computer models...the one I choose only has eight models listed.  Below is one that has what seems to be 30+ models...and this was before it was a tropical storm, and they all show a trend northward, away from the USA.

 

Lastly, one needs to have a good local meteorologist they can rely on.  Mine is Paul Dellegatto. Paul Dellegatto is the chief meteorologist for Tampa's FOX 13 (WTVT). He is a highly experienced meteorologist specializing in severe and tropical weather. He has been with WTVT since 1990 and became chief meteorologist in 1997.  He has monitored and reported on numerous storms, Tropical Storms, and Hurricanes.  Below is his latest tweet about Gabrielle from Paul.

So, in short, this is how we get through Hurricane Season.  When it starts looking bad, we will get in the van and leave, driving as far away as needed to get away from danger, and get away from a no electricity scenario.  Will try to keep you all updated on how things are going...