Predicting Hurricane Paths

 

One thing about Florida is...you have to watch for Hurricanes from June through November.  96 percent of the major hurricane days occur from August to October, (according to NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)  The ONE good thing about hurricanes is that unlike tornadoes, where your provided perhaps a half hour, but sometimes only minutes of a warning, a hurricane gives you days of warning, if you heed the warning.

Paul Dellegatto has been with WTVT, Fox 13, in Tampa for 33 years, and has more experience with Hurricanes for the Tampa area than just about anyone else.  From June through November I monitor his Twitter page consistently.  Above is his first tweet of what is now known as Idalia.   

But the site I follow even more closely is NOAA's National Hurricane Center.  Above is what they posted on Thursday, August 24th, four days ago.  I first saw this, then went to Paul's Twitter page, and then had my first big GULP with a slight lump in the back of my throat.  By the way, I had been following Hurricane Franklin from when it was a Orange X...it is headed north and then north east, away from land.  I first saw Idalia (pronounced  ee-DAHL-yuh) when it was a Yellow X, and then it went from Yellow to Red and really got my attention.

On Saturday it became a Tropical Depression, and then quickly a Tropical Storm by Sunday morning.  Once they are a Depression, you can start to get a path, as shown above. At the tip of the red arrow is where our Condo sits, just over three miles from the Gulf.  Our condo sits at just at 13' in elevation...we are not considered in the flood zone, although a few of the condos closer to the entrance are in the flood zone.

So this is where we are as of 1 pm Pacific Time (our current time zone).  The forecast calls for it to hit land Tuesday night/Wednesday evening. Current impact with land is 100 miles to our northwest, as the crow flies.  

This is a close up view of where it 'might' hit landfall.  I say 'might' because this far out, it is too hard to predict it.  Since it turned into a depression, this 'line' has ranged from being over Perry, which is the top red circle, and as low as Chiefland, which is the bottom red circle.  The distance along the shore is about 33 miles in length.  

So, why did I use the word "MIGHT" in the above paragraph?  This picture above is of Hurricane Ian, last year.  The paths shown were the ones they thought it would follow as of September 25th.  Three days later it slammed into the coast far below each prediction.  So much so that many of the people down south of Punta Gorda where it hit said they were unprepared because 2-3 days earlier it was going to hit well above Tampa.  Then about 24 hours before it hit a forecast had it hitting Tampa...then a few hours later it was moved down closer to where it did hit land.  Those people fell asleep because they were looking at the dark line...ignoring the 'cone' of where it could hit.  

Above you can see the 'cone' in light grey...and it clearly shows that Punta Gorda was in play as where it 'could' hit.  But people saw the 'red line', which is where most models showed where it probably could hit.  

This is the 4 pm release, not much of a change.  Except that the center of the Tropical Storm has not moved very far since it became a Tropical Depression...only about 80 miles.  Monday was suppose to be the day of more rapid movement...it has not happened yet.

So Paul says that this 'could' be good news...perhaps the storm won't be as strong as first predicted.  We can only hope so.  And being on the edge of the cone still leaves that lump in the back of my throat...and since we don't have any cats, and Indy does not shed very much, it surely can't be a furball stuck back there...

NOTE:  We are in California, far away from the danger posed by this up and coming Hurricane

Major Shift Makes Major Move - Hurricane Ian

 

So we went to bed last night seeing that the Hurricane had shifted down south of Sarasota...the further south for us, the better for the Condo...to far south, and worse for being in the DeLand area.  Last night around 2 am I watched the newscast and was about ready to hit the road right then and there...but I can't drive at night like I use to be able to do.  So this morning around 8 am I talked to Marcia about the situation, and we decided to leave the area.  Not only was Ian, as a Tropical Storm, going to pass by within a few miles of where we were, there were going to be many possible Tornadoes in the area too.  Enough is enough...we left and were on the road shortly after 9 am.  Saw the live cams of the Interstates, and they all looked good...not much traffic.  Just so happened to have a break in the rain, so I hardly got wet at all hooking up the car and unhooking the utilities.  Went east to I-95 in Daytona, and north on I-95 to the Jacksonville area to catch I-10 so that we could go west.  Other than about 10 minutes of huge downpour along I-95, the drive was problem free.  Traffic was not heavy, but not light.  It worked out well.

So we made it to Perry Florida, which is along US-19, as is our Condo...but the Condo is about 170 miles to our south.  Bottom line is, we are SAFE, little wind, no rain, and one of about 20 RVs in the Walmart Parking Lot in Perry.  We hope to make it back home tomorrow.  With the Hurricane going so far south, all is well in Holiday/Tarpon Springs area.  In fact, Tampa has done well with this southern path, but Sarasota, Fort Meyers and especially Port Charlotte have been hit hard...and since the path predictors missed on this one, they did not have much time to prepare.  (EVERYONE was saying it was hitting Tampa for the last 2 days prior to last night.)

We had a LONG travel day...lots of stress for the first 4 hours or so.

Now we just fulfilled our day with some gorgeous sunset pictures.  Tomorrow is another day, and we hope to be enjoying it at home in our condo...

Update on Hurricane Ian Plans

 

Within hours of my last post saying we were going to Chiefland, I canceled that plan as the Hurricane path moved right for Chiefland.  Late last night the path moved over to Tallahassee, and that model has pretty much held for thee past 12+ hours.  

All of the 'blue' area in the picture above is the 'Cone of Uncertainty' -- where it 'could' head.  The black line is the projected path, or a combination of the many paths, sometimes called spaghetti paths, that they squeeze together to form one path to represent a probable track.  

 

 

The thing is, there are MANY MANY spaghetti paths out there.  Keeping track of them in current time can be hard to do.  I am not sure which 'paths' or 'models' are used in the NOAA and the National Weather Service combined site (www.nhc.noaa.gov), but they put out a forecast every couple of hours, and that is what I follow the most.  I let them put the models together, and they come up with a probable path.  As the Hurricane gets closer to landfall, the more accurate the model becomes.  In 2018 when Michael went by us and hit Mexico Beach, their path was within a few miles from where they said it would hit land Monday night, to where it did hit land at 1 pm on Wednesday.  We saw no need to leave with Hurricane Michael, with this one...well, it is closer (not as far off shore).  So Monday we are headed east to DeLand, where Marcia's brother Dean and sister-in-law Caryl live.  That will put us 100 miles further east of the path, however we will still be within the 'Cone of Uncertainty'.  But as the Hurricane gets closer to hitting land, that cone will shrink...and we hope DeLand will no longer be in that cone.  If things change, well, that is why a motorhome has wheels.

Getting far away from Hurricane Ian

 

If you come back to Florida too early, then you have a strong chance of dealing with a Hurricane.  Ian, at this writing, is still only a Tropical Storm...but that will not last long.  By Sunday night it should be a Category One Hurricane.  By Tuesday morning it should be a Category Three, and when it hits Florida, it will be either a Three or a Four.  Oh, how fun!

This is a snip-it of the MIMIC-TPW2 map of total precipitable water.  If you visit this site here, you can see the full map which includes a 24 hour moving map so you can see right where the storm(s) are moving.  It also allows for you to change the view ranging from the entire earth, to a North America or South America, or other regions.  You can also change the time frame from 24 hours to 3 or 4 days!

So what are we going to do?  The five day forecast calls for this hurricane to hit shore about 50-60 mile south of us...but five day forecasts are just that, forecasts.  The 'cone of probability' ranges from the panhandle all the way down to the keys below Miami.  But most likely, it will land near Tampa.  Because the highways will be full of people getting out of the hurricane's way on Monday and Tuesday, we are leaving on Sunday.  We will travel about 100 miles north to Chiefland Florida.  I hope we don't have to go any further, but only time will tell.