Update on Hurricane Ian Plans

 

Within hours of my last post saying we were going to Chiefland, I canceled that plan as the Hurricane path moved right for Chiefland.  Late last night the path moved over to Tallahassee, and that model has pretty much held for thee past 12+ hours.  

All of the 'blue' area in the picture above is the 'Cone of Uncertainty' -- where it 'could' head.  The black line is the projected path, or a combination of the many paths, sometimes called spaghetti paths, that they squeeze together to form one path to represent a probable track.  

 

 

The thing is, there are MANY MANY spaghetti paths out there.  Keeping track of them in current time can be hard to do.  I am not sure which 'paths' or 'models' are used in the NOAA and the National Weather Service combined site (www.nhc.noaa.gov), but they put out a forecast every couple of hours, and that is what I follow the most.  I let them put the models together, and they come up with a probable path.  As the Hurricane gets closer to landfall, the more accurate the model becomes.  In 2018 when Michael went by us and hit Mexico Beach, their path was within a few miles from where they said it would hit land Monday night, to where it did hit land at 1 pm on Wednesday.  We saw no need to leave with Hurricane Michael, with this one...well, it is closer (not as far off shore).  So Monday we are headed east to DeLand, where Marcia's brother Dean and sister-in-law Caryl live.  That will put us 100 miles further east of the path, however we will still be within the 'Cone of Uncertainty'.  But as the Hurricane gets closer to hitting land, that cone will shrink...and we hope DeLand will no longer be in that cone.  If things change, well, that is why a motorhome has wheels.