Hurricane Season at HIGH ALERT Next 6-8 Weeks

 

Five days ago, this is what the 7 day forecast looked like...nothing for the next seven days.  This site is the National Hurricane Center Website, maintained by NOAA, which is the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/) It is the "go to" website that I monitor from mid-May through mid-November.  However, September and October are the months when Florida Hurricanes are most likely going to develop.  Lots of storms show up on the NOAA site, some don't materialize, while others grow into Tropical Storms, and then Hurricanes.  Around September 1st we had the same scenario that we face now (as presented below), and then it all just fell apart.  Well...this is where we are now.

September 10th, later in the day from the first image.  NOAA was warning about possible formation in the next 7 days at 20% chance.  On that date, the storm was still on land in Africa.
 

Two days later, the storm has moved off of Africa and into the ocean (orange X), it now had a 40% chance of forming in the next seven days.

Three days later, which is today (Monday), the storm has moved further into the ocean, and the potential is now up to 90% in the next seven days.
 

Above is the two day forecast which includes satellite view...you can clearly see the potential of the future Tropical Storm Gabrielle, and most likely future Hurricane Gabrielle.  Now they call it "Invest AL92".  The name "Invest AL92" comes from the "Invest" designation, short for investigative area, used by the National Hurricane Center.  AL means it is in the Atlantic.  The number "92" is simply the 92nd investigation of the season, a sequential number assigned to the disturbances.

One thing I like about this NOAA website is they provide a short synopsis of the storm.  Once it becomes a Tropical Storm, most likely in the next day or two, you can even get a storm path forecast line within the red cone.  In the next few days I turn to other websites which show "Spaghetti paths".  These are predicted paths formed by various "Weather Gurus".  Will let you all know how things look in the next few days.  Even "if" this turns into a Hurricane, and "if" it heads for Florida, most likely it will hit the Atlantic side, and not the Gulf side where we live.  "IF" that happens, it will take a 8-10 days to get near us...the Camper Van will be full of gas, just in case.

And Then Comes Hurricane Milton . . .

 

If you have not heard, ANOTHER gulf hurricane is headed right for Central Florida.  WHERE it hits land is going to be VERY important.  Hurricanes turn counter clockwise.  When it hits land, the right side of the hurricane (in Central Florida that means the southern side) is going to do the most damage.  Water is being pushed into the land, giving a surge that will be many many feet higher than normal.  On the left side of the hurricane (in Central Florida that means north side) the water is being pushed away from the shore, so there is no water surge.  As far as wind is concerned, when it hits land, the right side (south side) will have all the winds fury coming off the water.  ON the left side (north side) the wind will have been traveling over land, which slows it up, and typically is just not as strong or deadly.

The picture above is from nhc.noaa.gov on Saturday morning shortly after the storm reached the Tropical Depression level...which is when they start predicting its path.  The RED area is the coastline, and it is this area that the following pictures will deal with as I show, close up, the area of potential impact, which changes every 6 hours since landfall is still so far off.

So above is the blow-up of the Saturday, 11 am, prediction...the first prediction.  The RED X is about where we live.  The distance from where they predicted landfall, and where we live, is about 50 miles to our south...so we would be on the left side (north) of where the hurricane would hit.  "IF" this prediction held, we would be fine...

Six hours later, it was now Tropical Storm Milton, and the point of landfall has moved to the north side of Tampa Bay, only 25 miles from us.  THAT is to the point that where I started to feel uncomfortable.  Marcia and I agreed that we might just have to get in the Camper Van and get away from this one.  Impact was predicted for Wednesday.

Six hours later, the point of landfall moved a few miles further north, only 20 miles from where we live.  Ok, I had better make a plan.

Six hours later, it has shifted back to the south, but still on the north side of Tampa Bay.  This is important because "IF" this thing hits slightly north of Tampa Bay, the storm surge into Tampa Bay is going to HUGE...making the flooding along the coast by Helene look like a kid playing in a bathtub.  Tampa would be hit hard...real hard.  When Marcia woke up we talked and decided to leave on Monday.  Told her about a campground up near Tallahassee, and agreed that would be perfect.

Then, six hours later, the track had move south with a hit on Sarasota.  That would be 65 miles south of our home.  I felt much better, however, by 10 am I had reservations at the campground near Tallahassee, and had texted to various family members that we were leaving Monday and heading north.  The great thing about this is that Marcia'a Granddaughter now lives in Tallahassee since she got her new position at Florida State.  So even if the hurricane stays well south of our home, we will be able to enjoy seeing the Great Grandchildren, enjoy camping (hope there are no mosquitos), and not have to worry about the hurricane other than any damage it might do "IF" it hits further north.

Six hours later there was no real shift outside of a mile or two to the predicted landfall spot.  In 90 minutes from now another prediction will come out...don't know if there will be a shift to the north or the south.  These hurricanes tend to shift, but the shift seems to shorten up as it gets closer to the coast.  Anticipating landfall sometime Wednesday morning.  By Wednesday late afternoon it will be out in the Atlantic.  If you look at the very first prediction above, there is a blue area on each side of the black line.  The hurricane will hit somewhere within this blue area.  As we get into late Monday and into Tuesday this blue area will get thinner and thinner.  I expect where we live will be within the blue area until it actually hits land.  If you live within the blue area, you need to be prepared for the Hurricane to impact your area.

So this pattern of watching hurricanes is just life down in Florida.  During hurricane season I watch the National Hurricane Center website a lot, and when there is a potential hurricane that might affect us, I go to it at four times a day, along with other local sites, especially Paul Dellegatto's twitter account where he gives updates frequently.  He is the Chief meteorologist at FOX13 in Tampa. 

As for us...we will be camping until Saturday morning...