Tropical Storm Gabrielle and More

 

As predicted, the newly formed Tropical Storm "GABRIELLE" has turned north/northwest, and looks like our country is free from harm. Let me explain the image above...  The "Green Circles" are the past path of what is now Gabrielle, formerly known at AL92 (explained in previous blog).  So, we dodged THAT bullet...

But...and with Hurricane Season, there is ALWAYS a "but"... There are two more possible disturbances behind Gabrielle.  I have NEVER seen two yellow areas on top of each other.  These are TWO different disturbances.  The one with the Yellow X is off the coast of Africa, and it is too early to know if the conditions are going to allow it to grow.  The second, larger yellow area is still located on Africa, and seems to be a bit larger of a storm, and it might have a larger chance of growing.
 

Above is an image of the computer spaghetti models.  The legend in the above image has all sorts of colors and initials...these are the names of the computer models that developed them.  For instance, "CMC", the light blue line, is the Canadian Meteorological Centre, the Canadian government agency that produces a global weather forecast model. AVNO was an older name for the current American Global Forecast System (GFS), a primary numerical weather prediction model run by the National Weather Service (NWS) and its parent organization, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).  If you are interested more, I will let you do the research on the other model names.  There are over 15 different computer models...the one I choose only has eight models listed.  Below is one that has what seems to be 30+ models...and this was before it was a tropical storm, and they all show a trend northward, away from the USA.

 

Lastly, one needs to have a good local meteorologist they can rely on.  Mine is Paul Dellegatto. Paul Dellegatto is the chief meteorologist for Tampa's FOX 13 (WTVT). He is a highly experienced meteorologist specializing in severe and tropical weather. He has been with WTVT since 1990 and became chief meteorologist in 1997.  He has monitored and reported on numerous storms, Tropical Storms, and Hurricanes.  Below is his latest tweet about Gabrielle from Paul.

So, in short, this is how we get through Hurricane Season.  When it starts looking bad, we will get in the van and leave, driving as far away as needed to get away from danger, and get away from a no electricity scenario.  Will try to keep you all updated on how things are going...
 

 

 

Hurricane Season at HIGH ALERT Next 6-8 Weeks

 

Five days ago, this is what the 7 day forecast looked like...nothing for the next seven days.  This site is the National Hurricane Center Website, maintained by NOAA, which is the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/) It is the "go to" website that I monitor from mid-May through mid-November.  However, September and October are the months when Florida Hurricanes are most likely going to develop.  Lots of storms show up on the NOAA site, some don't materialize, while others grow into Tropical Storms, and then Hurricanes.  Around September 1st we had the same scenario that we face now (as presented below), and then it all just fell apart.  Well...this is where we are now.

September 10th, later in the day from the first image.  NOAA was warning about possible formation in the next 7 days at 20% chance.  On that date, the storm was still on land in Africa.
 

Two days later, the storm has moved off of Africa and into the ocean (orange X), it now had a 40% chance of forming in the next seven days.

Three days later, which is today (Monday), the storm has moved further into the ocean, and the potential is now up to 90% in the next seven days.
 

Above is the two day forecast which includes satellite view...you can clearly see the potential of the future Tropical Storm Gabrielle, and most likely future Hurricane Gabrielle.  Now they call it "Invest AL92".  The name "Invest AL92" comes from the "Invest" designation, short for investigative area, used by the National Hurricane Center.  AL means it is in the Atlantic.  The number "92" is simply the 92nd investigation of the season, a sequential number assigned to the disturbances.

One thing I like about this NOAA website is they provide a short synopsis of the storm.  Once it becomes a Tropical Storm, most likely in the next day or two, you can even get a storm path forecast line within the red cone.  In the next few days I turn to other websites which show "Spaghetti paths".  These are predicted paths formed by various "Weather Gurus".  Will let you all know how things look in the next few days.  Even "if" this turns into a Hurricane, and "if" it heads for Florida, most likely it will hit the Atlantic side, and not the Gulf side where we live.  "IF" that happens, it will take a 8-10 days to get near us...the Camper Van will be full of gas, just in case.