Tropical Storm Gabrielle and More

 

As predicted, the newly formed Tropical Storm "GABRIELLE" has turned north/northwest, and looks like our country is free from harm. Let me explain the image above...  The "Green Circles" are the past path of what is now Gabrielle, formerly known at AL92 (explained in previous blog).  So, we dodged THAT bullet...

But...and with Hurricane Season, there is ALWAYS a "but"... There are two more possible disturbances behind Gabrielle.  I have NEVER seen two yellow areas on top of each other.  These are TWO different disturbances.  The one with the Yellow X is off the coast of Africa, and it is too early to know if the conditions are going to allow it to grow.  The second, larger yellow area is still located on Africa, and seems to be a bit larger of a storm, and it might have a larger chance of growing.
 

Above is an image of the computer spaghetti models.  The legend in the above image has all sorts of colors and initials...these are the names of the computer models that developed them.  For instance, "CMC", the light blue line, is the Canadian Meteorological Centre, the Canadian government agency that produces a global weather forecast model. AVNO was an older name for the current American Global Forecast System (GFS), a primary numerical weather prediction model run by the National Weather Service (NWS) and its parent organization, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).  If you are interested more, I will let you do the research on the other model names.  There are over 15 different computer models...the one I choose only has eight models listed.  Below is one that has what seems to be 30+ models...and this was before it was a tropical storm, and they all show a trend northward, away from the USA.

 

Lastly, one needs to have a good local meteorologist they can rely on.  Mine is Paul Dellegatto. Paul Dellegatto is the chief meteorologist for Tampa's FOX 13 (WTVT). He is a highly experienced meteorologist specializing in severe and tropical weather. He has been with WTVT since 1990 and became chief meteorologist in 1997.  He has monitored and reported on numerous storms, Tropical Storms, and Hurricanes.  Below is his latest tweet about Gabrielle from Paul.

So, in short, this is how we get through Hurricane Season.  When it starts looking bad, we will get in the van and leave, driving as far away as needed to get away from danger, and get away from a no electricity scenario.  Will try to keep you all updated on how things are going...
 

 

 

Hurricane Season at HIGH ALERT Next 6-8 Weeks

 

Five days ago, this is what the 7 day forecast looked like...nothing for the next seven days.  This site is the National Hurricane Center Website, maintained by NOAA, which is the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/) It is the "go to" website that I monitor from mid-May through mid-November.  However, September and October are the months when Florida Hurricanes are most likely going to develop.  Lots of storms show up on the NOAA site, some don't materialize, while others grow into Tropical Storms, and then Hurricanes.  Around September 1st we had the same scenario that we face now (as presented below), and then it all just fell apart.  Well...this is where we are now.

September 10th, later in the day from the first image.  NOAA was warning about possible formation in the next 7 days at 20% chance.  On that date, the storm was still on land in Africa.
 

Two days later, the storm has moved off of Africa and into the ocean (orange X), it now had a 40% chance of forming in the next seven days.

Three days later, which is today (Monday), the storm has moved further into the ocean, and the potential is now up to 90% in the next seven days.
 

Above is the two day forecast which includes satellite view...you can clearly see the potential of the future Tropical Storm Gabrielle, and most likely future Hurricane Gabrielle.  Now they call it "Invest AL92".  The name "Invest AL92" comes from the "Invest" designation, short for investigative area, used by the National Hurricane Center.  AL means it is in the Atlantic.  The number "92" is simply the 92nd investigation of the season, a sequential number assigned to the disturbances.

One thing I like about this NOAA website is they provide a short synopsis of the storm.  Once it becomes a Tropical Storm, most likely in the next day or two, you can even get a storm path forecast line within the red cone.  In the next few days I turn to other websites which show "Spaghetti paths".  These are predicted paths formed by various "Weather Gurus".  Will let you all know how things look in the next few days.  Even "if" this turns into a Hurricane, and "if" it heads for Florida, most likely it will hit the Atlantic side, and not the Gulf side where we live.  "IF" that happens, it will take a 8-10 days to get near us...the Camper Van will be full of gas, just in case.

Predicting Hurricane Paths

 

One thing about Florida is...you have to watch for Hurricanes from June through November.  96 percent of the major hurricane days occur from August to October, (according to NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)  The ONE good thing about hurricanes is that unlike tornadoes, where your provided perhaps a half hour, but sometimes only minutes of a warning, a hurricane gives you days of warning, if you heed the warning.

Paul Dellegatto has been with WTVT, Fox 13, in Tampa for 33 years, and has more experience with Hurricanes for the Tampa area than just about anyone else.  From June through November I monitor his Twitter page consistently.  Above is his first tweet of what is now known as Idalia.   

But the site I follow even more closely is NOAA's National Hurricane Center.  Above is what they posted on Thursday, August 24th, four days ago.  I first saw this, then went to Paul's Twitter page, and then had my first big GULP with a slight lump in the back of my throat.  By the way, I had been following Hurricane Franklin from when it was a Orange X...it is headed north and then north east, away from land.  I first saw Idalia (pronounced  ee-DAHL-yuh) when it was a Yellow X, and then it went from Yellow to Red and really got my attention.

On Saturday it became a Tropical Depression, and then quickly a Tropical Storm by Sunday morning.  Once they are a Depression, you can start to get a path, as shown above. At the tip of the red arrow is where our Condo sits, just over three miles from the Gulf.  Our condo sits at just at 13' in elevation...we are not considered in the flood zone, although a few of the condos closer to the entrance are in the flood zone.

So this is where we are as of 1 pm Pacific Time (our current time zone).  The forecast calls for it to hit land Tuesday night/Wednesday evening. Current impact with land is 100 miles to our northwest, as the crow flies.  

This is a close up view of where it 'might' hit landfall.  I say 'might' because this far out, it is too hard to predict it.  Since it turned into a depression, this 'line' has ranged from being over Perry, which is the top red circle, and as low as Chiefland, which is the bottom red circle.  The distance along the shore is about 33 miles in length.  

So, why did I use the word "MIGHT" in the above paragraph?  This picture above is of Hurricane Ian, last year.  The paths shown were the ones they thought it would follow as of September 25th.  Three days later it slammed into the coast far below each prediction.  So much so that many of the people down south of Punta Gorda where it hit said they were unprepared because 2-3 days earlier it was going to hit well above Tampa.  Then about 24 hours before it hit a forecast had it hitting Tampa...then a few hours later it was moved down closer to where it did hit land.  Those people fell asleep because they were looking at the dark line...ignoring the 'cone' of where it could hit.  

Above you can see the 'cone' in light grey...and it clearly shows that Punta Gorda was in play as where it 'could' hit.  But people saw the 'red line', which is where most models showed where it probably could hit.  

This is the 4 pm release, not much of a change.  Except that the center of the Tropical Storm has not moved very far since it became a Tropical Depression...only about 80 miles.  Monday was suppose to be the day of more rapid movement...it has not happened yet.

So Paul says that this 'could' be good news...perhaps the storm won't be as strong as first predicted.  We can only hope so.  And being on the edge of the cone still leaves that lump in the back of my throat...and since we don't have any cats, and Indy does not shed very much, it surely can't be a furball stuck back there...

NOTE:  We are in California, far away from the danger posed by this up and coming Hurricane

Hurricane Irma…Rain, Wind, No Direct Hit

Citrus Heights, Ca at Sister’s House

Although we won’t have word until tomorrow (Tuesday) at the earliest, the heart of Hurricane Irma missed our community of Tarpon Springs/Holiday Florida by around 20 miles.  And when it did get near us…it was barely a Category 1 Hurricane.  When we saw it hit the coast at Marco Island, I knew we had a good chance to miss the most powerful punch of the hurricane.  The arrow is the general path of the Hurricane as it passed through the Tampa area.  The “X” in the upper left is the area we live in.  The entire state seemed to get lots of rain and wind from the outer bands.  We will know in the morning if there is any flooding problems…for now, the area is under curfew, and morning’s light will produce a massive amounts of pictures.

I feel for those folks in and around Marco Island…and Naples who did take the full punch.  I also feel for folks in the Miami area in general, and of course, the Keys which took the hardest punch in Florida.  Of course, the Hurricane did massive damage outside of the United States too…it is the nature of the beast of living in this humid area.

Not that our area near the Tarpon Springs / Holiday area did not have problems.  Above is a Duke Energy Outage Map…and our Condo is in this general “outage” spot affecting nearly 1,000 homes.

We kept in touch with the situation by watching FOX 13 out of Tampa via the Internet.  On Saturday morning I did some research on which Television stations had a live stream…and FOX 13 seemed to be the best…maybe not the “technical best”, but because they have what we consider the best Meteorologist team headed up by Paul Dellegatto who oversees the work of four other Meteorologist. When it comes to Hurricanes…they are my team, that is for sure.  That said, they did have some technical problems.  At 9:00 pm Pacific Time Saturday (Midnight Tampa time) it went off the air for about 20 minutes…then it came back on with the rerun of the Saturday morning show.  Figured they had to make a mistake, and after 10-15 minutes of watching what I had watched earlier in the day…I called them.  Got transferred to the “Internet” person, and the nice lady immediately looked at it, acknowledged they had problems much of the day, promised she would fix it, and thanked me for calling.  She had “no clue” that they were broadcasting old stuff…and had been for 20+ minutes. 

At 1:00 am my time, 4 am Tampa time, it happened again…but this time when it came on they were showing what they broadcasted 2 hours prior to this.  I immediately called, and unfortunately the nice lady had left after a long, busy day. Her replacement was more skeptical when I talked to her…asked if I had started the “Miami feed” (did not know there was such a feed), and when I told her this was the second time I had called in the past 4 hours, she said, “Well, let me see for myself…”  And then about 30 seconds I hear the echo of what I am watching…and she gasps and says, “Oh, you are so right….”  Well, it was bed time, and we left the stream going…but by 6:45 when I got up to let the dogs out and feed them, the live stream was gone.

At noon our time, 3 pm Sunday Tampa time, it happened again…this time they started broadcasting what they broadcasted 45 minutes prior.  I immediately called, and this time was connected to a guy who tried to blow me off by saying, “Our engineers know about it and are working on it….”  I told him this was the third time I had called in less than 24 hours, and that the first two times I called no knew they were broadcasting old stuff.  I could not have counted to 10 after I hung up and the live stream went off the air.  Nearly 30 minutes later it came back up…and it has worked great ever since.

Another site I used was the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) site.  They seemed to have the best view of the eye of the storm so that I could track its direction.  They provide a 30 minute satellite view of the hurricane which takes about 10 seconds to play.  Every time it did a “wobble” to the north before they expected it to turn, I would say “YES!”, but with the full knowledge that if it turned too early, Miami and millions of people would be put in harms way.  What I truly hoped for was a turn into the Everglades…less population to harm…but no, it turned as forecasted…now it depended on which northern path it would follow. 

Goodbye Irma…how about headed west and putting out a few fires out here…..

PS:  Why is it that all the news media seem to think we like seeing them out in the wind, the rain, along a beach, standing in water, picking up sand and watching it blow into their face when they drop it????