Within hours of my last post saying we were going to Chiefland, I canceled that plan as the Hurricane path moved right for Chiefland. Late last night the path moved over to Tallahassee, and that model has pretty much held for thee past 12+ hours.
All of the 'blue' area in the picture above is the 'Cone of Uncertainty' -- where it 'could' head. The black line is the projected path, or a combination of the many paths, sometimes called spaghetti paths, that they squeeze together to form one path to represent a probable track.
The thing is, there are MANY MANY spaghetti paths out there. Keeping track of them in current time can be hard to do. I am not sure which 'paths' or 'models' are used in the NOAA and the National Weather Service combined site (www.nhc.noaa.gov), but they put out a forecast every couple of hours, and that is what I follow the most. I let them put the models together, and they come up with a probable path. As the Hurricane gets closer to landfall, the more accurate the model becomes. In 2018 when Michael went by us and hit Mexico Beach, their path was within a few miles from where they said it would hit land Monday night, to where it did hit land at 1 pm on Wednesday. We saw no need to leave with Hurricane Michael, with this one...well, it is closer (not as far off shore). So Monday we are headed east to DeLand, where Marcia's brother Dean and sister-in-law Caryl live. That will put us 100 miles further east of the path, however we will still be within the 'Cone of Uncertainty'. But as the Hurricane gets closer to hitting land, that cone will shrink...and we hope DeLand will no longer be in that cone. If things change, well, that is why a motorhome has wheels.
Always welcome here in north Alabama. We have two RV sites. One electric and water, the other full hookup. Check us out on Boondockers Welcome.com. The East Estate. Would love to have you here to ride out the storm.
ReplyDeletePhyllis, I thought about you when we came from Arkansas to Florida via Alabama 6 weeks ago. We were in the western part, and our car was not working very well, so I decided to come directly home. But I do appreciate it, and HOPE we can stop and visit with you one of these times.
DeleteGot my fingers crossed it passes you by. I hate the uncertainty!!!
ReplyDeleteRight now it does not look like a direct hit, but it is going to do some damage to our community, perhaps to the condos. We are safe (?) in the DeLand Florida area on the eastern coast. It will rain and have high winds even over here, but it will (should) be a lot safer, and we get to visit with family.
DeleteGlad you got out of the main path. Stay safe!
ReplyDeleteThanks. And the main path just got much closer to our town! YIKES!!
DeleteDo you have that thing tied to your belt loops? It sure seems to be following you. Sending more prayers!!!
ReplyDeleteThat is what I was thinking! Publishing a blog here tonight, what a heck of a day today way!!!!!
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